Agentic AI could reverse the relationship between AI presence and job posting growth.
Important points:
- Since Claude Code launched in late February 2025, software development job postings in the U.S. have increased by nearly 15%, while the total number of job postings has decreased by 7% over the same period.
- Job postings for careers potentially more exposed to AI-driven changes, including software development, generally declined the most between 2022 and 2026. However, over the past year, occupations most exposed to AI generally saw the largest increase in job postings.
- 71% of the increase in software development job postings between May 2025 and May 2026 are for leadership roles, and 37% are for jobs that mention AI in the title.
Software development job postings have increased again over the past year, although the total number of job postings continues to slowly decline. This is a surprising reversal after years of decline in the tech industry and other sectors heavily impacted by AI-driven changes. And while correlation doesn’t imply causation, the introduction of Claude Code and other widely used agent AI tools around the same time that software roles were getting back on their feet is a coincidence that can’t be ignored.
Claude Code was launched at the end of February 2025. Since that date, the number of software developer job postings posted on Indeed in the U.S. has increased by nearly 15%, while overall job postings have decreased by 7%. The term “vibecoding” was coined for the first time in February 2025. It is intended to describe in simple language the interactions that allow AI to handle technical coding while human developers focus on creating and refining a product vision. Of course, there were many other factors affecting the market both then and now, but the short-term recovery over the last year and more is still noteworthy.
Line chart titled “Software Development Job Postings Have Been Experience a Rebound” showing seasonally adjusted US job postings indexed to 100 on February 24, 2025, the start of Claude Code. Since then, software development job postings have increased nearly 15%, while overall job postings have declined 7%.
However, it is important to note that the rebound has a low starting point. Even after the recent increase, software development job postings remain approximately 27.5% below their pre-pandemic levels, while the total number of job postings is essentially the same as February 2020.
The line chart titled “The Software Development Recovery Has a Low Starting Point” shows seasonally adjusted U.S. job postings from February 2020 to June 2026, indexed to 100 on February 1, 2020. Despite the recent rebound, software development job postings remain 27.5% below their pre-pandemic levels, while overall postings remain essentially flat.
The software upswing between 2025 and 2026 is not just limited to the USA. With the exception of Germany and France, the share of all job postings that are software development jobs has increased in most major developed economies analyzed by Hiring Lab. English-speaking countries appear to be seeing more consistent positive trends, suggesting that companies and workers in these countries may be early adopters of agent AI tools. Many AI and technology centers are located in English-speaking countries, and AI usage in many of them is higher overall than in non-English-speaking countries.
The line chart titled “The share of software development job postings recovers in most major economies” shows the share of software development in total postings in six major economies from January 2025 to June 2026. In most countries the share is increasing, while in Germany the share continues to fall.
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Are other professions exposed to AI experiencing a similar boom?
If we compare the changes in job postings between May 2022 (the peak of the labor market) and May 2026, we see that the more exposed an occupation is, the more it has declined. As other researchers have argued, the decline in job vacancies for AI-at-risk jobs began even before ChatGPT’s release in late 2022.
Correlation does not imply causation, but this uncontrolled association between job posting change and AI exposure is statistically significant. Occupations that make up a larger share of job postings on Indeed tend to be in the lower and middle parts of the AI presence distribution.
Scatterplot titled “Between 2022 and 2026, AI-exposed occupations led to declines in job postings,” showing the change in U.S. job postings from May 2022 to May 2026 compared to occupations’ GenAI exposure. The most exposed occupations, including software development, saw the largest declines.
However, when analyzing the recent period in which software development job postings have rebounded, the connection and history emerges: the more exposed a profession is to AI on average, the more strongly it has recovered. This applies not only to software development, but also to other professions at risk of AI.
Scatterplot titled “AI-exposed occupations lead the recovery in job postings since 2025,” showing the change in U.S. job postings from May 2025 to May 2026 compared to occupations’ GenAI exposure. The relationship revolves around: Occupations more impacted by AI generally recovered the most.
A high-level, AI-safe rebound
What’s notable is that the uptick is concentrated: 71% of the increase in software development job postings between May 2025 and May 2026 came from senior positions, and 37% came from jobs that mentioned AI in the title. This suggests that there is growing demand for experienced professionals who can work with AI, and not necessarily a broad recovery of all software roles.
The bar chart, titled “The Software Development Resurgent Focuses on Senior and AI Roles,” shows that between May 2025 and May 2026, 71% of the net increase in software development job openings in the U.S. is in senior roles and 37% in AI-related titles, with overlap between the two categories.
These preliminary findings are consistent with previous research focused on the disproportionate impact of AI on entry-level professionals. Despite the recovery in software development, the job market could still see a seniority-driven technological shift.
Diploma
The relationship between AI exposure and job postings appears to be flipping, from job destruction to job creation. While there are many other factors besides AI complementarity influencing the increase in job postings in AI-at-risk occupations, it is significant that AI-related roles play a large role in the increase in software development. This isn’t just a software development story: Mention of AI in job titles is also spreading to roles in a range of other white-collar jobs.
The impact of AI on the job market may continue to evolve as the technology itself mutates. Agentic AI may have been a structural change, and there may be more to come. The future of work may depend in large part on the slope of the relationship between AI exposure and job postings. Job seekers, employers and policymakers should keep a close eye on how this relationship evolves over time.
https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/07/08/ai-and-job-postings-from-destruction-to-creation/
